The Strait of Hormuz and the New Supply Chain Stress Test

The Strait of Hormuz has long carried strategic weight because of what moves through it. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait, making it one of the world’s most vital maritime routes. That energy helps power transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and consumer markets.

Recent conflict in the region has heightened the Strait’s importance. Reuters reported that shipping activity through the Strait dropped sharply in late April, with only a handful of vessels transiting in a 24-hour period, compared with the typical daily traffic of roughly 125 to 140 ships before the conflict began. For supply chain leaders, the Strait is a sharp reminder that disruption can enter through one channel before spreading across pricing, freight, suppliers and customer experience.

The question becomes: do systems have enough flexibility, visibility and human capacity to respond before pressure turns into breakdown?

When One Route Carries Too Much Risk

When a significant share of global energy flow depends on a single maritime route, instability can move quickly through markets. ASEAN economic ministers recently warned that conflict in the region could slow growth, citing the Strait’s role in seaborne oil and LNG exports as well as rising freight, insurance and logistics costs.

That concern reaches beyond companies that source directly from the Persian Gulf. Energy volatility can expose weaknesses that are easy to miss during normal operations, from sourcing models and freight plans to supplier agreements that depend on stable costs, routes and timelines.

Fuel Costs Move Through the Whole Business

When energy costs shift quickly, supply chain leaders need to know when that ripple requires action.
That means defining decision thresholds before pressure builds. At what point does a fuel surcharge trigger a pricing review? When does a freight increase justify rerouting? Which cost changes can be absorbed within margin tolerance, and which require supplier renegotiation or customer communication?

Without ownership, organizations risk losing time to internal debate while costs continue to move through the system.

Efficiency Needs Room for Disruption

Supply chain leaders have operated through overlapping disruptions: pandemic shutdowns, port congestion, labor shortages, inflation, tariff activity and geopolitical instability.

Each has tested a different part of the system, but the pattern is consistent. Models built primarily for cost efficiency can struggle when volatility becomes sustained rather than episodic.

A lean model can still reduce waste, improve flow and strengthen process discipline. But lean thinking requires judgment. When organizations interpret lean as relentless cost removal, they can strip away the redundancy and optionality needed to respond under pressure.

This requires leaders to revisit long-standing assumptions around single-source suppliers, inventory buffers, route diversity and rigid production schedules. The goal is to design systems that can continue to perform under changing conditions.

Digital Visibility Has to Support Action

Many organizations have invested heavily in digital supply chain tools. Demand planning platforms, AI-enabled forecasting, logistics dashboards and supplier risk systems can help leaders see disruption earlier and model possible responses.

But if teams don’t trust the tools, understand the outputs or have the authority to act, digital systems become just another layer of complexity. A dashboard that shows rising transportation costs is useful only if the organization knows what to do next.

When shipping, insurance or energy costs shift, teams need integrated data and clear decision pathways. Recent reporting on proposed Iranian tolls and related U.S. sanctions shows how quickly a transportation issue can become a legal, financial and operational concern.

The stronger question for leaders is, “Can our people use the technology under pressure?”

People Are Part of the System

Supply chain stress is often measured through assets, routes, inventories and costs, but every disruption eventually lands on people. Procurement teams renegotiate. Logistics teams reroute. Finance teams remodel costs. Customer-facing teams explain delays.

When those teams are stretched too thin, the risk shows up in slower decisions, missed signals and inconsistent execution. Workforce well-being belongs inside the resilience conversation because teams need the ability to execute under pressure.

When teams are operating at capacity before disruption hits, even strong processes can become harder to execute consistently.

Scenario Planning in the Operating Rhythm

Supply chain scenario planning is often treated as a leadership exercise, separate from daily execution. Today’s conditions call for a more practical approach.

Because energy, freight and insurance costs can shift quickly, scenario planning needs to become part of the operating rhythm, giving leaders a way to test assumptions before disruption forces action.

This kind of planning is also where Lean Six Sigma thinking becomes especially practical. Tools such as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, or FMEA, help teams identify where a process, supplier relationship or operational system could fail, assess the potential impact and prioritize mitigation before disruption occurs.

Organizations should be asking:
•    Which products, suppliers or regions are most exposed to fuel and freight increases? 
•    What cost thresholds would trigger pricing, sourcing or routing changes? 
•    Who has authority to approve alternate logistics plans? 
•    How quickly can finance, procurement and operations align on a response? 

These questions help organizations avoid waiting too long to act because the information is incomplete.

Flexibility is the Strategic Priority

Speed, cost and efficiency still matter, but they are no longer enough on their own. Today’s supply chains need optionality, supplier visibility, process discipline, data-informed judgment and leaders who know when efficiency needs to give way to redundancy.

That requires a more intentional kind of operational leadership. Leaders need to understand where their systems are exposed, which decisions require cross-functional alignment and how to build flexibility before disruption forces the issue.

The next move is broader than preparing for a single chokepoint, conflict or market shock. Leaders need the capability to assess risk, improve processes and guide teams through uncertainty with clarity and discipline.

Strengthen Operational Leadership Through Lean Six Sigma

Villanova University’s College of Professional Studies supports professionals who want to build the skills needed to improve systems, lead through complexity and make data-informed decisions under pressure.

Through flexible online Lean Six Sigma programs taught by expert faculty practitioners, learners develop practical capabilities in process improvement, operational analysis, change management and strategic problem-solving.

For supply chain and operations professionals, that kind of applied learning can help turn disruption into a more disciplined approach to improvement, resilience and long-term operational strength.